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Seosan Pioneer vs Jecheon Citizen — K4 League 2026

Seosan Pioneer
Seosan Pioneer
Preview
05:00
Jecheon Citizen
Jecheon Citizen
11/8/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 26
50%
Jecheon Citizen
model favours
26%24%50%
1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Seosan Pioneer26%
×Draw24%
Jecheon Citizen50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seosan Pioneer
1.20
Jecheon Citizen
1.75

Jecheon Citizen creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Seosan Pioneer
1.40
Jecheon Citizen
1.11

allows per match

Seosan Pioneer
2.40
Jecheon Citizen
1.00

finishing

Seosan Pioneer+0.00on par
Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seosan Pioneer ↓

Jecheon Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Seosan Pioneer or draw
50%
Seosan Pioneer or Jecheon Citizen
76%
Draw or Jecheon Citizen
74%

Winning margin

Seosan Pioneer wins by 2+
11%
Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Seosan Pioneer 1+ goals
70%
Seosan Pioneer 2+ goals
34%
Seosan Pioneer 3+ goals
12%
Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals
83%
Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals
52%
Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Seosan Pioneer (draw refunded)
34%
Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seosan Pioneer at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Jecheon Citizen away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seosan Pioneer attack 1.40 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.11 + Seosan Pioneer defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Seosan Pioneer scores more
26%
level
24%
Jecheon Citizen scores more
50%

Jecheon Citizen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jecheon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Pioneer
WLLLL
Citizen
LLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Seosan Pioneer face Jecheon Citizen (K4 League)

K4 League returns with Seosan Pioneer hosting Jecheon Citizen. Match starts November 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.