Jecheon Citizen 3–2 Seosan Pioneer: Result & Stats

Jecheon Citizen

FT

3 – 2

Seosan Pioneer

5/31/2026

K4 League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jecheon Citizen45%

×Draw24%

Seosan Pioneer31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jecheon CitizenExpected goals in this matchSeosan Pioneer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.36

Jecheon Citizen

1.70

Seosan Pioneer

1.36

Jecheon Citizen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

1.30

1.43

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Jecheon Citizen

1.00

Seosan Pioneer

1.30

allows per match

Jecheon Citizen

1.43

Seosan Pioneer

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par

Seosan Pioneer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jecheon Citizen ↓

Seosan Pioneer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Jecheon Citizen or draw

69%

Jecheon Citizen or Seosan Pioneer

76%

Draw or Seosan Pioneer

55%

Winning margin

Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+

24%

Seosan Pioneer wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals

82%

Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals

51%

Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals

24%

Seosan Pioneer 1+ goals

74%

Seosan Pioneer 2+ goals

39%

Seosan Pioneer 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)

60%

Seosan Pioneer (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jecheon Citizen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Seosan Pioneer away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.00 + Seosan Pioneer defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Seosan Pioneer attack 1.30 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jecheon Citizen scores more

45%

level

24%

Seosan Pioneer scores more

31%

Jecheon Citizen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jecheon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff