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Seosan Pioneer vs Haman — K4 League 2026

Seosan Pioneer
Seosan Pioneer
FT
1 – 2
Haman
Haman
5/23/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Seosan Pioneer31%
×Draw24%
Haman45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seosan Pioneer
1.36
Haman
1.70

Haman creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Seosan Pioneer
1.40
Haman
1.00

allows per match

Seosan Pioneer
2.40
Haman
1.33

finishing

Seosan Pioneer+0.00on par
Haman+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seosan Pioneer ↓

Haman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Seosan Pioneer or draw
55%
Seosan Pioneer or Haman
76%
Draw or Haman
69%

Winning margin

Seosan Pioneer wins by 2+
14%
Haman wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Seosan Pioneer 1+ goals
74%
Seosan Pioneer 2+ goals
39%
Seosan Pioneer 3+ goals
16%
Haman 1+ goals
82%
Haman 2+ goals
51%
Haman 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Seosan Pioneer (draw refunded)
40%
Haman (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seosan Pioneer at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Haman away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seosan Pioneer attack 1.40 + Haman defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Haman attack 1.00 + Seosan Pioneer defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Seosan Pioneer scores more
31%
level
24%
Haman scores more
45%

Haman at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Haman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seosan Pioneer vs Haman

Haman beat Seosan Pioneer 2-1 in K4 League on May 23, 2026.