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Seosan Pioneer vs Geumsan Insam — K4 League 2026

Seosan Pioneer
Seosan Pioneer
Preview
08:00
Geumsan Insam
Geumsan Insam
8/23/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 19
54%
Geumsan Insam
model favours
25%21%54%
1–2
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Seosan Pioneer25%
×Draw21%
Geumsan Insam54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seosan Pioneer
1.42
Geumsan Insam
2.15

Geumsan Insam creates 51% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Seosan Pioneer
1.40
Geumsan Insam
1.89

allows per match

Seosan Pioneer
2.40
Geumsan Insam
1.44

finishing

Seosan Pioneer+0.00on par
Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seosan Pioneer ↓

Geumsan Insam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Seosan Pioneer or draw
46%
Seosan Pioneer or Geumsan Insam
79%
Draw or Geumsan Insam
75%

Winning margin

Seosan Pioneer wins by 2+
11%
Geumsan Insam wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Seosan Pioneer 1+ goals
76%
Seosan Pioneer 2+ goals
41%
Seosan Pioneer 3+ goals
17%
Geumsan Insam 1+ goals
88%
Geumsan Insam 2+ goals
63%
Geumsan Insam 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Seosan Pioneer (draw refunded)
32%
Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seosan Pioneer at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Geumsan Insam away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seosan Pioneer attack 1.40 + Geumsan Insam defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Geumsan Insam attack 1.89 + Seosan Pioneer defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Seosan Pioneer scores more
25%
level
21%
Geumsan Insam scores more
54%

Geumsan Insam at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Pioneer
WLLLL
Insam
WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Seosan Pioneer face Geumsan Insam (K4 League)

K4 League returns with Seosan Pioneer hosting Geumsan Insam. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.