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Geumsan Insam vs Seosan Pioneer — K4 League 2026

Geumsan Insam
Geumsan Insam
FT
2 – 0
Seosan Pioneer
Seosan Pioneer
4/11/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Geumsan Insam59%
×Draw22%
Seosan Pioneer19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geumsan Insam
1.92
Seosan Pioneer
1.00

Geumsan Insam creates 92% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Geumsan Insam
1.43
Seosan Pioneer
1.30

allows per match

Geumsan Insam
0.71
Seosan Pioneer
2.40

finishing

Geumsan Insam+0.00on par
Seosan Pioneer+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geumsan Insam ↓

Seosan Pioneer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Geumsan Insam or draw
81%
Geumsan Insam or Seosan Pioneer
78%
Draw or Seosan Pioneer
41%

Winning margin

Geumsan Insam wins by 2+
35%
Seosan Pioneer wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Geumsan Insam 1+ goals
85%
Geumsan Insam 2+ goals
57%
Geumsan Insam 3+ goals
30%
Seosan Pioneer 1+ goals
63%
Seosan Pioneer 2+ goals
26%
Seosan Pioneer 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)
75%
Seosan Pioneer (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geumsan Insam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Seosan Pioneer away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geumsan Insam attack 1.43 + Seosan Pioneer defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.92

Seosan Pioneer attack 1.30 + Geumsan Insam defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Geumsan Insam scores more
59%
level
22%
Seosan Pioneer scores more
19%

Geumsan Insam at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Geumsan Insam 2–0 Seosan Pioneer

Geumsan Insam beat Seosan Pioneer 2-0 in K4 League on April 11, 2026.