Seongnam FC 0–2 Seoul E-Land FC: Result & Stats

Seongnam FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Seoul E-Land FC

10/3/2025

K League 2 · Round 32Tancheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Seongnam FC37%

×Draw28%

Seoul E-Land FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seongnam FCExpected goals in this matchSeoul E-Land FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.19

Seongnam FC

1.23

Seoul E-Land FC

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 152 away

1.16

creates per match

1.21

1.17

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Seongnam FC

1.16

Seoul E-Land FC

1.21

allows per match

Seongnam FC

1.17

Seoul E-Land FC

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seongnam FC+0.00on par

Seoul E-Land FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seongnam FC ↓

Seoul E-Land FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Seongnam FC or draw

65%

Seongnam FC or Seoul E-Land FC

72%

Draw or Seoul E-Land FC

63%

Winning margin

Seongnam FC wins by 2+

16%

Seoul E-Land FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Seongnam FC 1+ goals

71%

Seongnam FC 2+ goals

35%

Seongnam FC 3+ goals

13%

Seoul E-Land FC 1+ goals

70%

Seoul E-Land FC 2+ goals

33%

Seoul E-Land FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Seongnam FC (draw refunded)

51%

Seoul E-Land FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seongnam FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

Seoul E-Land FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.31 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seongnam FC attack 1.16 + Seoul E-Land FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Seoul E-Land FC attack 1.21 + Seongnam FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Seongnam FC scores more

37%

level

28%

Seoul E-Land FC scores more

35%

Seongnam FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Seongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff