Sényő Carnifex 5–1 Salgótarjáni BTC: Result & Stats

Sényő Carnifex

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Salgótarjáni BTC

11/26/2023

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 17Sényői Focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sényő Carnifex52%

×Draw23%

Salgótarjáni BTC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sényő CarnifexExpected goals in this matchSalgótarjáni BTC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.21

Sényő Carnifex

1.85

Salgótarjáni BTC

1.21

Sényő Carnifex creates 53% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 49 away

1.79

creates per match

0.86

1.56

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Sényő Carnifex

1.79

Salgótarjáni BTC

0.86

allows per match

Sényő Carnifex

1.56

Salgótarjáni BTC

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sényő Carnifex ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sényő Carnifex or draw

75%

Sényő Carnifex or Salgótarjáni BTC

77%

Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC

48%

Winning margin

Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+

29%

Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals

84%

Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals

55%

Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals

28%

Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals

70%

Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals

34%

Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)

68%

Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sényő Carnifex at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 111 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.79 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.85

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + Sényő Carnifex defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sényő Carnifex scores more

52%

level

23%

Salgótarjáni BTC scores more

25%

Sényő Carnifex at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff