Sényő Carnifex 6–2 Sajóbábony Vegyész

Sényő Carnifex

FT

6 – 2

Sajóbábony Vegyész

10/25/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 15Sényői Focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sényő Carnifex68%

×Draw17%

Sajóbábony Vegyész15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sényő CarnifexExpected goals in this matchSajóbábony Vegyész

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.23

Sényő Carnifex

2.71

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.23

Sényő Carnifex creates 120% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 19 away

1.79

creates per match

0.89

1.56

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

Sényő Carnifex

1.79

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.89

allows per match

Sényő Carnifex

1.56

Sajóbábony Vegyész

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sényő Carnifex ↓

Sajóbábony Vegyész →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Sényő Carnifex or draw

85%

Sényő Carnifex or Sajóbábony Vegyész

83%

Draw or Sajóbábony Vegyész

32%

Winning margin

Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+

47%

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals

93%

Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals

75%

Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals

50%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

71%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

35%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)

82%

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sényő Carnifex at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 111 matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.79 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.71

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 0.89 + Sényő Carnifex defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sényő Carnifex scores more

68%

level

17%

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

15%

Sényő Carnifex at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff