Sényő Carnifex 3–2 Karcag SE: Result & Stats

Sényő Carnifex

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Karcag SE

7/30/2023

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 1Sényői Focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sényő Carnifex39%

×Draw24%

Karcag SE37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sényő CarnifexExpected goals in this matchKarcag SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.48

Sényő Carnifex

1.53

Karcag SE

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 49 away

1.79

creates per match

1.41

1.56

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Sényő Carnifex

1.79

Karcag SE

1.41

allows per match

Sényő Carnifex

1.56

Karcag SE

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Karcag SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sényő Carnifex ↓

Karcag SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sényő Carnifex or draw

63%

Sényő Carnifex or Karcag SE

76%

Draw or Karcag SE

61%

Winning margin

Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+

19%

Karcag SE wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals

78%

Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals

45%

Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals

20%

Karcag SE 1+ goals

77%

Karcag SE 2+ goals

43%

Karcag SE 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)

51%

Karcag SE (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sényő Carnifex at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 111 matches

Karcag SE away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.79 + Karcag SE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.53

Karcag SE attack 1.41 + Sényő Carnifex defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sényő Carnifex scores more

39%

level

24%

Karcag SE scores more

37%

Sényő Carnifex at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff