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Sényő Carnifex vs Debrecen II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Debrecen II
Debrecen II
8/10/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 3Sényői Focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Sényő Carnifex43%
×Draw23%
Debrecen II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sényő Carnifex
1.78
Debrecen II
1.59

Sényő Carnifex creates 12% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.79
Debrecen II
1.62

allows per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.56
Debrecen II
1.77

finishing

Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par
Debrecen II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sényő Carnifex ↓

Debrecen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sényő Carnifex or draw
65%
Sényő Carnifex or Debrecen II
77%
Draw or Debrecen II
57%

Winning margin

Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
22%
Debrecen II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
83%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
53%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
26%
Debrecen II 1+ goals
80%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
47%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
55%
Debrecen II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sényő Carnifex at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 111 matches

Debrecen II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.79 + Debrecen II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.78

Debrecen II attack 1.62 + Sényő Carnifex defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sényő Carnifex scores more
43%
level
23%
Debrecen II scores more
35%

Sényő Carnifex at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Sényő Carnifex 0–3 Debrecen II

Debrecen II beat Sényő Carnifex 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Sényői Focipálya in Sényő.