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Senja vs Vålerenga II — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Senja
Senja
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vålerenga II
Vålerenga II
10/18/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Senja Storhall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Senja55%
×Draw20%
Vålerenga II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senja
2.23
Vålerenga II
1.46

Senja creates 53% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 32 away

creates per match

Senja
1.26
Vålerenga II
1.13

allows per match

Senja
1.79
Vålerenga II
3.19

finishing

Senja+0.00on par
Vålerenga II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senja ↓

Vålerenga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Senja or draw
75%
Senja or Vålerenga II
80%
Draw or Vålerenga II
45%

Winning margin

Senja wins by 2+
33%
Vålerenga II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Senja 1+ goals
89%
Senja 2+ goals
65%
Senja 3+ goals
38%
Vålerenga II 1+ goals
77%
Vålerenga II 2+ goals
43%
Vålerenga II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Senja (draw refunded)
69%
Vålerenga II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senja at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Vålerenga II away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senja attack 1.26 + Vålerenga II defence 3.19 → ÷2 → 2.23

Vålerenga II attack 1.13 + Senja defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Senja scores more
55%
level
20%
Vålerenga II scores more
25%

Senja at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Senja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Senja vs Vålerenga II

Senja beat Vålerenga II 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on October 18, 2021.

The match was played at Senja Storhall in Silsand.