Senja 1–2 Mjølner: Result & Stats

Senja

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mjølner

5/26/2019

2. Division - Group 2 · Round 7Islandsbotn Kunstgress (Silsand, Lenvik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Senja59%

×Draw20%

Mjølner20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SenjaExpected goals in this matchMjølner

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.19

Senja

2.16

Mjølner

1.19

Senja creates 82% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.62

creates per match

1.15

1.23

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Senja

1.62

Mjølner

1.15

allows per match

Senja

1.23

Mjølner

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Senja+0.00on par

Mjølner+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senja ↓

Mjølner →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Senja or draw

80%

Senja or Mjølner

80%

Draw or Mjølner

41%

Winning margin

Senja wins by 2+

37%

Mjølner wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Senja 1+ goals

88%

Senja 2+ goals

63%

Senja 3+ goals

36%

Mjølner 1+ goals

70%

Mjølner 2+ goals

33%

Mjølner 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Senja (draw refunded)

74%

Mjølner (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senja at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Mjølner away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senja attack 1.62 + Mjølner defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.16

Mjølner attack 1.15 + Senja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Senja scores more

59%

level

20%

Mjølner scores more

20%

Senja at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Senja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff