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Senja vs Harstad — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Senja
Senja
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Harstad
Harstad
9/3/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 19Senja Storhall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Senja31%
×Draw20%
Harstad49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senja
1.91
Harstad
2.41

Harstad creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Senja
1.54
Harstad
1.58

allows per match

Senja
3.23
Harstad
2.27

finishing

Senja+0.00on par
Harstad+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senja ↓

Harstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Senja or draw
51%
Senja or Harstad
80%
Draw or Harstad
69%

Winning margin

Senja wins by 2+
16%
Harstad wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Senja 1+ goals
85%
Senja 2+ goals
57%
Senja 3+ goals
30%
Harstad 1+ goals
91%
Harstad 2+ goals
69%
Harstad 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Senja (draw refunded)
39%
Harstad (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senja at home — creates 1.54, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

Harstad away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senja attack 1.54 + Harstad defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.91

Harstad attack 1.58 + Senja defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Senja scores more
31%
level
20%
Harstad scores more
49%

Harstad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Harstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Senja vs Harstad

Harstad beat Senja 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Senja Storhall in Silsand.