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Senja vs Bærum — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Senja
Senja
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bærum
Bærum
6/8/20192. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Round 9Islandsbotn Kunstgress (Silsand, Lenvik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Senja52%
×Draw23%
Bærum25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senja
1.86
Bærum
1.23

Senja creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 45 away

creates per match

Senja
1.62
Bærum
1.24

allows per match

Senja
1.23
Bærum
2.11

finishing

Senja+0.00on par
Bærum+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senja ↓

Bærum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Senja or draw
75%
Senja or Bærum
77%
Draw or Bærum
48%

Winning margin

Senja wins by 2+
29%
Bærum wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Senja 1+ goals
84%
Senja 2+ goals
55%
Senja 3+ goals
28%
Bærum 1+ goals
71%
Bærum 2+ goals
35%
Bærum 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Senja (draw refunded)
67%
Bærum (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senja at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Bærum away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senja attack 1.62 + Bærum defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.86

Bærum attack 1.24 + Senja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Senja scores more
52%
level
23%
Bærum scores more
25%

Senja at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Senja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Senja 1 – 1 Bærum

Senja and Bærum drew 1-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on June 8, 2019.

The match was played at Islandsbotn Kunstgress (Silsand, Lenvik).