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Senica vs Slovácko — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Senica
Senica
FT
0 – 1
Slovácko
Slovácko
8/1/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3OMS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Senica40%
×Draw27%
Slovácko33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senica
1.35
Slovácko
1.20

Senica creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Senica
1.80
Slovácko
1.60

allows per match

Senica
0.80
Slovácko
0.90

finishing

Senica+0.00on par
Slovácko+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senica ↓

Slovácko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Senica or draw
67%
Senica or Slovácko
73%
Draw or Slovácko
60%

Winning margin

Senica wins by 2+
18%
Slovácko wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Senica 1+ goals
74%
Senica 2+ goals
39%
Senica 3+ goals
15%
Slovácko 1+ goals
70%
Slovácko 2+ goals
34%
Slovácko 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Senica (draw refunded)
55%
Slovácko (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Slovácko away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senica attack 1.80 + Slovácko defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.35

Slovácko attack 1.60 + Senica defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Senica scores more
40%
level
27%
Slovácko scores more
33%

Senica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Senica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Senica 0–1 Slovácko

Slovácko beat Senica 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 1, 2020.

The match was played at OMS Arena in Senica.