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Senica vs Šamorín — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Senica
Senica
FT
3 – 1
Šamorín
Šamorín
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Futbalový štadión Rybky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Senica65%
×Draw20%
Šamorín15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senica
2.10
Šamorín
0.90

Senica creates 133% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Senica
1.80
Šamorín
1.00

allows per match

Senica
0.80
Šamorín
2.40

finishing

Senica+0.00on par
Šamorín+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senica ↓

Šamorín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Senica or draw
85%
Senica or Šamorín
80%
Draw or Šamorín
35%

Winning margin

Senica wins by 2+
41%
Šamorín wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Senica 1+ goals
88%
Senica 2+ goals
62%
Senica 3+ goals
35%
Šamorín 1+ goals
59%
Šamorín 2+ goals
23%
Šamorín 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Senica (draw refunded)
81%
Šamorín (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Šamorín away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senica attack 1.80 + Šamorín defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.10

Šamorín attack 1.00 + Senica defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Senica scores more
65%
level
20%
Šamorín scores more
15%

Senica at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Senica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Senica vs Šamorín

Senica beat Šamorín 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rybky in Rybky.