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Senegal W vs Congo DR W — Friendlies Women 2026

Senegal W
Senegal W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Congo DR W
Congo DR W
7/12/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stade Lat Dior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Senegal W52%
×Draw24%
Congo DR W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senegal W
1.69
Congo DR W
1.06

Senegal W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Senegal W
1.50
Congo DR W
1.33

allows per match

Senegal W
0.79
Congo DR W
1.89

finishing

Senegal W+0.00on par
Congo DR W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senegal W ↓

Congo DR W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Senegal W or draw
76%
Senegal W or Congo DR W
76%
Draw or Congo DR W
48%

Winning margin

Senegal W wins by 2+
28%
Congo DR W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Senegal W 1+ goals
82%
Senegal W 2+ goals
50%
Senegal W 3+ goals
24%
Congo DR W 1+ goals
65%
Congo DR W 2+ goals
29%
Congo DR W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Senegal W (draw refunded)
69%
Congo DR W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senegal W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Congo DR W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senegal W attack 1.50 + Congo DR W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Congo DR W attack 1.33 + Senegal W defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Senegal W scores more
52%
level
24%
Congo DR W scores more
24%

Senegal W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Senegal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Senegal W 1–0 Congo DR W

Senegal W beat Congo DR W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on July 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Lat Dior in Thiès.