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Senegal vs Niger — Friendlies 2026

Senegal
Senegal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Niger
Niger
1/8/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Senegal62%
×Draw23%
Niger14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senegal
1.72
Niger
0.68

Senegal creates 153% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Senegal
2.00
Niger
0.88

allows per match

Senegal
0.47
Niger
1.44

finishing

Senegal+0.00on par
Niger+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senegal ↓

Niger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Senegal or draw
86%
Senegal or Niger
77%
Draw or Niger
38%

Winning margin

Senegal wins by 2+
36%
Niger wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Senegal 1+ goals
82%
Senegal 2+ goals
51%
Senegal 3+ goals
25%
Niger 1+ goals
49%
Niger 2+ goals
15%
Niger 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Senegal (draw refunded)
81%
Niger (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senegal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Niger away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senegal attack 2.00 + Niger defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Niger attack 0.88 + Senegal defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Senegal scores more
62%
level
23%
Niger scores more
14%

Senegal at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Senegal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Senegal 1 – 0 Niger

Senegal beat Niger 1-0 in Friendlies on January 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade in Diamniadio.