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Senegal vs Mauritania — Friendlies 2026

Senegal
Senegal
CANC
19:00
Mauritania
Mauritania
10/13/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Lat Dior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Senegal68%
×Draw22%
Mauritania10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senegal
1.71
Mauritania
0.48

Senegal creates 256% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Senegal
2.00
Mauritania
0.50

allows per match

Senegal
0.47
Mauritania
1.43

finishing

Senegal+0.00on par
Mauritania+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senegal ↓

Mauritania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Senegal or draw
90%
Senegal or Mauritania
78%
Draw or Mauritania
32%

Winning margin

Senegal wins by 2+
39%
Mauritania wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Senegal 1+ goals
82%
Senegal 2+ goals
51%
Senegal 3+ goals
24%
Mauritania 1+ goals
38%
Mauritania 2+ goals
8%
Mauritania 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Senegal (draw refunded)
87%
Mauritania (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senegal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Mauritania away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senegal attack 2.00 + Mauritania defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mauritania attack 0.50 + Senegal defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Senegal scores more
68%
level
22%
Mauritania scores more
10%

Senegal at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Senegal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Senegal vs Mauritania — Match Preview

Senegal face Mauritania on October 13, 2020 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Senegal host Mauritania at Stade Lat Dior.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.