Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Senegal vs Ivory Coast — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Senegal
Senegal
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coastadvanced
1/29/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Round of 16Stade Charles Konan Banny de Yamoussoukro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Senegal52%
×Draw26%
Ivory Coast22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senegal
1.54
Ivory Coast
0.90

Senegal creates 71% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Senegal
1.82
Ivory Coast
1.45

allows per match

Senegal
0.35
Ivory Coast
1.27

finishing

Senegal+0.00on par
Ivory Coast+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senegal ↓

Ivory Coast →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Senegal or draw
78%
Senegal or Ivory Coast
74%
Draw or Ivory Coast
48%

Winning margin

Senegal wins by 2+
27%
Ivory Coast wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Senegal 1+ goals
79%
Senegal 2+ goals
45%
Senegal 3+ goals
20%
Ivory Coast 1+ goals
59%
Ivory Coast 2+ goals
23%
Ivory Coast 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Senegal (draw refunded)
70%
Ivory Coast (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senegal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Ivory Coast away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senegal attack 1.82 + Ivory Coast defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ivory Coast attack 1.45 + Senegal defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Senegal scores more
52%
level
26%
Ivory Coast scores more
22%

Senegal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Senegal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Senegal 1–1 Ivory Coast

Senegal and Ivory Coast drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Charles Konan Banny de Yamoussoukro in Yamoussoukro.