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Senegal vs Equatorial Guinea — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Senegal
Senegaladvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
1/30/2022Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Quarter-finalsStade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Senegal58%
×Draw25%
Equatorial Guinea17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senegal
1.60
Equatorial Guinea
0.74

Senegal creates 116% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Senegal
1.82
Equatorial Guinea
1.13

allows per match

Senegal
0.35
Equatorial Guinea
1.38

finishing

Senegal+0.00on par
Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senegal ↓

Equatorial Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Senegal or draw
83%
Senegal or Equatorial Guinea
75%
Draw or Equatorial Guinea
42%

Winning margin

Senegal wins by 2+
31%
Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Senegal 1+ goals
80%
Senegal 2+ goals
47%
Senegal 3+ goals
22%
Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
52%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
17%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Senegal (draw refunded)
77%
Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senegal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Equatorial Guinea away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senegal attack 1.82 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Equatorial Guinea attack 1.13 + Senegal defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Senegal scores more
58%
level
25%
Equatorial Guinea scores more
17%

Senegal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Senegal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Senegal 3–1 Equatorial Guinea

Senegal beat Equatorial Guinea 3-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo in Yaoundé.