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Senegal vs Congo DR — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Senegal
Senegal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Congo DR
Congo DR
S. Mane 69'
C. Bakambu 61'
12/27/2025Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Ibn-Batouta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Senegal50%
×Draw28%
Congo DR22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senegal
1.34
Congo DR
0.79

Senegal creates 70% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Senegal
1.88
Congo DR
1.20

allows per match

Senegal
0.38
Congo DR
0.80

finishing

Senegal+0.00on par
Congo DR+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senegal ↓

Congo DR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Senegal or draw
78%
Senegal or Congo DR
72%
Draw or Congo DR
50%

Winning margin

Senegal wins by 2+
24%
Congo DR wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Senegal 1+ goals
74%
Senegal 2+ goals
39%
Senegal 3+ goals
15%
Congo DR 1+ goals
55%
Congo DR 2+ goals
19%
Congo DR 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Senegal (draw refunded)
69%
Congo DR (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senegal at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.38 · 16 matches

Congo DR away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senegal attack 1.88 + Congo DR defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Congo DR attack 1.20 + Senegal defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Senegal scores more
50%
level
28%
Congo DR scores more
22%

Senegal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Senegal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
S. ManeSenegalSenegal · M
7.6

Match Events

28'
Pape Gueye
61'
C. Bakambu
62'
I. Mbaye← I. Sarr
66'
F. Mayele← C. Bakambu
66'
N. Mbuku← T. Bongonda
69'
S. Mane
73'
J. Kayembe← A. Masuaku
73'
E. Kayembe← N. Mukau
81'
L. Camara← P. Gueye
81'
H. Diallo← N. Jackson
87'
M. Balikwisha← M. Elia
89'
C. Sabaly← I. Ndiaye

Possession

64%Senegal

Shots

11Senegal

Pass accuracy

53%Senegal

Statistics

SenegalCongo
Overview
64%Possession36%
11Total Shots7
5Corners2
18Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots7
3On Target3
6Off Target3
2Blocked1
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
506Total Passes281
439Accurate Passes218
87%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Africa Cup of Nations: Senegal 1–1 Congo DR

Senegal and Congo DR drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on December 27, 2025.

Goals: C. Bakambu (61'), S. Mane (69').

Senegal controlled possession (64%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Ibn-Batouta in Tanger.