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Senegal vs Cameroon — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Senegal
Senegal
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cameroon
Cameroon
1/19/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Charles Konan Banny de Yamoussoukro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Senegal57%
×Draw25%
Cameroon18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Senegal
1.56
Cameroon
0.75

Senegal creates 108% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Senegal
1.82
Cameroon
1.15

allows per match

Senegal
0.35
Cameroon
1.31

finishing

Senegal+0.00on par
Cameroon+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Senegal ↓

Cameroon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Senegal or draw
82%
Senegal or Cameroon
75%
Draw or Cameroon
43%

Winning margin

Senegal wins by 2+
30%
Cameroon wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Senegal 1+ goals
79%
Senegal 2+ goals
46%
Senegal 3+ goals
21%
Cameroon 1+ goals
53%
Cameroon 2+ goals
17%
Cameroon 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Senegal (draw refunded)
76%
Cameroon (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Senegal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Cameroon away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Senegal attack 1.82 + Cameroon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cameroon attack 1.15 + Senegal defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Senegal scores more
57%
level
25%
Cameroon scores more
18%

Senegal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Senegal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Senegal vs Cameroon

Senegal beat Cameroon 3-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Charles Konan Banny de Yamoussoukro in Yamoussoukro.