Senegal U17 vs Burkina Faso U17 — CAF Cup of Nations - U17 2023
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Senegal U1750%
Burkina Faso U1724%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Senegal U17 creates 58% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Senegal U17 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Senegal U17 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches
Burkina Faso U17 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Senegal U17 attack 2.00 + Burkina Faso U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50
Burkina Faso U17 attack 1.33 + Senegal U17 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Senegal U17 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Senegal U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Senegal U17 host Burkina Faso U17 on Sunday, 14 May 2023 at 16:00. The match is part of the CAF Cup of Nations - U17 2023/2024 season.
Match Recap: Senegal U17 vs Burkina Faso U17
Senegal U17 and Burkina Faso U17 drew 1-1 in CAF Cup of Nations - U17 on May 14, 2023.
Goals: A. Fall (16'), R. Ouédraogo (83', 120+2' pen), Serigne Fallou Diouf (120+1' pen), P. Dorival (120+3' pen), A. Ouattara (120+4' pen), I. Sow (120+5' pen), I. Soré (120+6' pen), M. Savané (120+7' pen), L. Yaméogo (120+8' pen), A. Diouf (120+9' pen).
The match was played at Stade du 19 Mai 1956 in Annaba.