Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sendvaris vs Tauras — Cup 2020

Sendvaris
Sendvaris
FT
0 – 13
Tauras
Tauras
4/11/2025CupCup · 1st RoundKlaipėdos FM dirbtinės dangos aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sendvaris1%
×Draw2%
Tauras98%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sendvaris
0.88
Tauras
7.83

Tauras creates 790% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sendvaris
0.75
Tauras
6.40

allows per match

Sendvaris
9.25
Tauras
1.00

finishing

Sendvaris+0.00on par
Tauras+0.00on par

Total goals

98%Over
  • Over98
  • Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sendvaris ↓

Tauras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–22%
0–34%
0–48%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–21%
1–33%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–32%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 33% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
100%0%2.5
98%2%3.5
92%8%4.5
80%20%

Double chance

Sendvaris or draw
2%
Sendvaris or Tauras
98%
Draw or Tauras
99%

Winning margin

Sendvaris wins by 2+
0%
Tauras wins by 2+
93%

Team goals

Sendvaris 1+ goals
59%
Sendvaris 2+ goals
22%
Sendvaris 3+ goals
6%
Tauras 1+ goals
100%
Tauras 2+ goals
99%
Tauras 3+ goals
95%

Draw no bet

Sendvaris (draw refunded)
1%
Tauras (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sendvaris at home — creates 0.75, concedes 9.25 · 4 matches

Tauras away — creates 6.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sendvaris attack 0.75 + Tauras defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Tauras attack 6.40 + Sendvaris defence 9.25 → ÷2 → 7.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 98%?"

Sendvaris scores more
1%
level
2%
Tauras scores more
98%

Tauras at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "Tauras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sendvaris 0–13 Tauras

Tauras beat Sendvaris 13-0 in Cup on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Klaipėdos FM dirbtinės dangos aikštė in Klaipėda.