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Sendvaris vs Garliava — Cup 2020

Sendvaris
Sendvaris
FT
2 – 7
Garliava
Garliava
4/25/2023CupCup · 1st RoundGargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sendvaris1%
×Draw2%
Garliava97%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sendvaris
0.79
Garliava
6.54

Garliava creates 728% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sendvaris
0.75
Garliava
3.83

allows per match

Sendvaris
9.25
Garliava
0.83

finishing

Sendvaris+0.00on par
Garliava+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sendvaris ↓

Garliava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–36%
0–410%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–35%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–32%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (10%) · grid covers 42% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
87%13%4.5
72%28%

Double chance

Sendvaris or draw
3%
Sendvaris or Garliava
98%
Draw or Garliava
99%

Winning margin

Sendvaris wins by 2+
0%
Garliava wins by 2+
91%

Team goals

Sendvaris 1+ goals
55%
Sendvaris 2+ goals
19%
Sendvaris 3+ goals
5%
Garliava 1+ goals
100%
Garliava 2+ goals
98%
Garliava 3+ goals
92%

Draw no bet

Sendvaris (draw refunded)
1%
Garliava (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sendvaris at home — creates 0.75, concedes 9.25 · 4 matches

Garliava away — creates 3.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sendvaris attack 0.75 + Garliava defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Garliava attack 3.83 + Sendvaris defence 9.25 → ÷2 → 6.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Sendvaris scores more
1%
level
2%
Garliava scores more
97%

Garliava at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Garliava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sendvaris vs Garliava

Garliava beat Sendvaris 7-2 in Cup on April 25, 2023.

The match was played at Gargždų miesto stadionas in Gargždai.