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Šencur vs Sava Kranj — 3. SNL - West 2020

Šencur
Šencur
FT
6 – 0
Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
9/5/20203. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 4Športni park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Šencur39%
×Draw22%
Sava Kranj39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šencur
1.79
Sava Kranj
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

creates per match

Šencur
2.09
Sava Kranj
2.40

allows per match

Šencur
1.14
Sava Kranj
1.50

finishing

Šencur+0.00on par
Sava Kranj+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šencur ↓

Sava Kranj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Šencur or draw
61%
Šencur or Sava Kranj
78%
Draw or Sava Kranj
61%

Winning margin

Šencur wins by 2+
20%
Sava Kranj wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Šencur 1+ goals
83%
Šencur 2+ goals
53%
Šencur 3+ goals
26%
Sava Kranj 1+ goals
83%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
53%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Šencur (draw refunded)
51%
Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šencur at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Sava Kranj away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šencur attack 2.09 + Sava Kranj defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sava Kranj attack 2.40 + Šencur defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Šencur scores more
39%
level
22%
Sava Kranj scores more
39%

Šencur at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Šencur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - West: Šencur 6–0 Sava Kranj

Šencur beat Sava Kranj 6-0 in 3. SNL - West on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Športni park in Šenčur.