Semendrija 1924 2–1 Stepojevac Vaga: Result & Stats

Semendrija 1924

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stepojevac Vaga

N. Kodzic 70'

B. Balaz 52'

T. Todorovic 54'

12/6/2025

Prva Liga · Round 21Stadion FK Smederevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Semendrija 192456%

×Draw26%

Stepojevac Vaga18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Semendrija 1924Expected goals in this matchStepojevac Vaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.76

Semendrija 1924

1.55

Stepojevac Vaga

0.76

Semendrija 1924 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 20 away

1.15

creates per match

0.65

0.86

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Semendrija 1924

1.15

Stepojevac Vaga

0.65

allows per match

Semendrija 1924

0.86

Stepojevac Vaga

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

Stepojevac Vaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw

82%

Semendrija 1924 or Stepojevac Vaga

74%

Draw or Stepojevac Vaga

44%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

30%

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

79%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

46%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

20%

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

53%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

18%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

75%

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 72 matches

Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.15 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.55

Stepojevac Vaga attack 0.65 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more

56%

level

26%

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

18%

Semendrija 1924 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

43'

43'

48'

52'

54'

61'

A. Preradov← L. Jurak

66'

A. Cvetkovic

70'

N. Kodzic

77'

T. Grbovic← A. Lokosa

77'

81'

86'

90'

Semendrija

Stepojevac

12

2

3

5

11

⚽

Todorovic

20

Milosavlj

21

▼

22

23

29

35

12

2

4

10

▼

Gajic

15

⚽

Balaz

19

▼

22

23

25

29

⚽

Kodzic

32

▼

Jurak

Manager: Nikola Mitic

61'▲A. Preradov←▼L. Jurak

77'▲T. Grbovic←▼A. Lokosa

77'▲F. Ivelja←▼U. Gajic

Semendrija 1924 substitutes

1Jovic3Cakovan5Lukic7Grbovic8Stojkovic14Ivelja16Joseph18Abadzija24Filipovic26Vidic27Preradov

Manager: Goran Dragoljic

81'▲Z. Arsic←▼O. Smith

Stepojevac Vaga substitutes

24Marinkovic4Radic10Arsic13Konyaev14Maksimovic15Vucicevic26Hao33Tomovic

Match Recap: Semendrija 1924 vs Stepojevac Vaga

Semendrija 1924 beat Stepojevac Vaga 2-1 in Prva Liga on December 6, 2025.

Goals: B. Balaz (52'), T. Todorovic (54'), N. Kodzic (70').

The match was played at Stadion FK Smederevo in Smederevo.

Semendrija 1924 vs Stepojevac Vaga — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Semendrija 1924 vs Stepojevac Vaga