Semendrija 1924 2–0 Sloboda Uzice: Result & Stats

Semendrija 1924

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sloboda Uzice

10/20/2024

Prva Liga · Round 12Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Semendrija 192452%

×Draw28%

Sloboda Uzice20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Semendrija 1924Expected goals in this matchSloboda Uzice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.74

Semendrija 1924

1.36

Sloboda Uzice

0.74

Semendrija 1924 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 76 away

1.15

creates per match

0.62

0.86

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Semendrija 1924

1.15

Sloboda Uzice

0.62

allows per match

Semendrija 1924

0.86

Sloboda Uzice

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

Sloboda Uzice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw

80%

Semendrija 1924 or Sloboda Uzice

72%

Draw or Sloboda Uzice

48%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

25%

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

74%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

39%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

16%

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals

52%

Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals

17%

Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

72%

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 72 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.15 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more

52%

level

28%

Sloboda Uzice scores more

20%

Semendrija 1924 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff