Semendrija 1924 2–1 Kabel Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Semendrija 1924

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kabel Novi Sad

N. Đorđević 74', 58'

Z. Karać 14'

10/14/2019

Prva Liga · Round 14Sportski Kompleks FK Smederevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Semendrija 192446%

×Draw29%

Kabel Novi Sad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Semendrija 1924Expected goals in this matchKabel Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.88

Semendrija 1924

1.28

Kabel Novi Sad

0.88

Semendrija 1924 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 71 away

1.15

creates per match

0.90

0.86

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Semendrija 1924

1.15

Kabel Novi Sad

0.90

allows per match

Semendrija 1924

0.86

Kabel Novi Sad

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

Kabel Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw

74%

Semendrija 1924 or Kabel Novi Sad

71%

Draw or Kabel Novi Sad

54%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

21%

Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

72%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

37%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

14%

Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals

59%

Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals

22%

Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

64%

Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 72 matches

Kabel Novi Sad away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.15 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.90 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more

46%

level

29%

Kabel Novi Sad scores more

26%

Semendrija 1924 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Z. Karać

46'

L. Marković← S. Rakić

46'

V. Pilipović← G. Vukliš

53'

A. Vujić← C. Nebo

53'

M. Srbijanac← S. Petrović

58'

N. Đorđević

64'

S. Matijević← M. Bajić

71'

S. Levićanin← F. Ilić

74'

N. Đorđević

Semendrija

Kabel

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: N. Vučićević

46'▲L. Marković←▼S. Rakić

64'▲S. Matijević←▼M. Bajić

71'▲S. Levićanin←▼F. Ilić

Semendrija 1924 substitutes

MarkovićMatijevićLevićanin

Manager: Z. Vasiljević

46'▲V. Pilipović←▼G. Vukliš

53'▲A. Vujić←▼C. Nebo

53'▲M. Srbijanac←▼S. Petrović

Kabel Novi Sad substitutes

PilipovićVujićSrbijanac

Prva Liga: Semendrija 1924 2–1 Kabel Novi Sad

Semendrija 1924 beat Kabel Novi Sad 2-1 in Prva Liga on October 14, 2019.

Goals: Z. Karać (14'), N. Đorđević (58', 74').

The match was played at Sportski Kompleks FK Smederevo in Smederevo.

Semendrija 1924 vs Kabel Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Prva Liga: Semendrija 1924 2–1 Kabel Novi Sad