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Semendrija 1924 vs Dubočica — Prva Liga 2018

Semendrija 1924
Semendrija 1924
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dubočica
Dubočica
4/6/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 30Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Semendrija 192449%
×Draw28%
Dubočica23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Semendrija 1924
1.33
Dubočica
0.82

Semendrija 1924 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 73 away

creates per match

Semendrija 1924
1.15
Dubočica
0.79

allows per match

Semendrija 1924
0.86
Dubočica
1.51

finishing

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Semendrija 1924 ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Semendrija 1924 or draw
77%
Semendrija 1924 or Dubočica
72%
Draw or Dubočica
51%

Winning margin

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+
23%
Dubočica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals
74%
Semendrija 1924 2+ goals
38%
Semendrija 1924 3+ goals
15%
Dubočica 1+ goals
56%
Dubočica 2+ goals
20%
Dubočica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)
68%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Semendrija 1924 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 72 matches

Dubočica away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Semendrija 1924 attack 1.15 + Dubočica defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dubočica attack 0.79 + Semendrija 1924 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Semendrija 1924 scores more
49%
level
28%
Dubočica scores more
23%

Semendrija 1924 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Semendrija 1924 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Semendrija 1924 0–1 Dubočica

Dubočica beat Semendrija 1924 1-0 in Prva Liga on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost in Pančevo.