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Selfoss vs Tindastóll — 2. Deild 2018

Selfoss
Selfoss
FT
4 – 2
Tindastóll
Tindastóll
6/20/20192. Deild2. Deild · Round 8JÁVERK-völlurinn (Selfoss, Árborg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Selfoss76%
×Draw14%
Tindastóll10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selfoss
3.02
Tindastóll
1.04

Selfoss creates 190% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

creates per match

Selfoss
2.45
Tindastóll
0.73

allows per match

Selfoss
1.34
Tindastóll
3.59

finishing

Selfoss+0.00on par
Tindastóll+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selfoss ↓

Tindastóll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Selfoss or draw
90%
Selfoss or Tindastóll
86%
Draw or Tindastóll
24%

Winning margin

Selfoss wins by 2+
57%
Tindastóll wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Selfoss 1+ goals
95%
Selfoss 2+ goals
80%
Selfoss 3+ goals
57%
Tindastóll 1+ goals
65%
Tindastóll 2+ goals
28%
Tindastóll 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Selfoss (draw refunded)
88%
Tindastóll (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selfoss at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Tindastóll away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selfoss attack 2.45 + Tindastóll defence 3.59 → ÷2 → 3.02

Tindastóll attack 0.73 + Selfoss defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Selfoss scores more
76%
level
14%
Tindastóll scores more
10%

Selfoss at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Selfoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Selfoss vs Tindastóll

Selfoss beat Tindastóll 4-2 in 2. Deild on June 20, 2019.

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn (Selfoss, Árborg).