Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Selfoss vs Stokkseyri — Cup 2019

Selfoss
Selfoss
CANC
19:15
Stokkseyri
Stokkseyri
4/4/2024CupCup · 1st RoundJÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Selfoss93%
×Draw5%
Stokkseyri3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selfoss
6.33
Stokkseyri
1.28

Selfoss creates 395% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Selfoss
3.33
Stokkseyri
1.00

allows per match

Selfoss
1.56
Stokkseyri
9.33

finishing

Selfoss+0.00on par
Stokkseyri+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selfoss ↓

Stokkseyri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 44% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
90%10%4.5
78%22%

Double chance

Selfoss or draw
97%
Selfoss or Stokkseyri
95%
Draw or Stokkseyri
7%

Winning margin

Selfoss wins by 2+
84%
Stokkseyri wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Selfoss 1+ goals
100%
Selfoss 2+ goals
98%
Selfoss 3+ goals
91%
Stokkseyri 1+ goals
72%
Stokkseyri 2+ goals
37%
Stokkseyri 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Selfoss (draw refunded)
97%
Stokkseyri (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selfoss at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Stokkseyri away — creates 1.00, concedes 9.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selfoss attack 3.33 + Stokkseyri defence 9.33 → ÷2 → 6.33

Stokkseyri attack 1.00 + Selfoss defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Selfoss scores more
93%
level
5%
Stokkseyri scores more
3%

Selfoss at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Selfoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Selfoss vs Stokkseyri — Match Preview

Selfoss face Stokkseyri on April 4, 2024 in this Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Selfoss host Stokkseyri at JÁVERK-völlurinn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.