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Selfoss vs KF — 2. Deild 2018

Selfoss
Selfoss
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
KF
KF
A. Birgisson 56'
A. Sanabria 33'
N. Gil 16'
T. Thorvaldsson 87' (pen)
V. Thomas 85'
8/21/20242. Deild2. Deild · Round 18JÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Selfoss60%
×Draw19%
KF21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selfoss
2.50
KF
1.45

Selfoss creates 72% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 54 away

creates per match

Selfoss
2.45
KF
1.56

allows per match

Selfoss
1.34
KF
2.56

finishing

Selfoss+0.00on par
KF+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selfoss ↓

KF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Selfoss or draw
79%
Selfoss or KF
81%
Draw or KF
40%

Winning margin

Selfoss wins by 2+
39%
KF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Selfoss 1+ goals
92%
Selfoss 2+ goals
71%
Selfoss 3+ goals
45%
KF 1+ goals
77%
KF 2+ goals
42%
KF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Selfoss (draw refunded)
74%
KF (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selfoss at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

KF away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.56 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selfoss attack 2.45 + KF defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.50

KF attack 1.56 + Selfoss defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Selfoss scores more
60%
level
19%
KF scores more
21%

Selfoss at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Selfoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
N. Gil
33'
A. Sanabria
56'
A. Birgisson
85'
V. Thomas
87'
T. ThorvaldssonPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Selfoss 3–2 KF

Selfoss beat KF 3-2 in 2. Deild on August 21, 2024.

Goals: N. Gil (16'), A. Sanabria (33'), A. Birgisson (56'), V. Thomas (85'), T. Thorvaldsson (87' pen).

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn in Selfoss, Árborg.