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Selfoss vs Fjardabyggd — 2. Deild 2018

Selfoss
Selfoss
FT
3 – 0
Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd
5/11/20192. Deild2. Deild · Round 2JÁVERK-völlurinn (Selfoss, Árborg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Selfoss63%
×Draw19%
Fjardabyggd18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selfoss
2.32
Fjardabyggd
1.17

Selfoss creates 98% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 43 away

creates per match

Selfoss
2.45
Fjardabyggd
1.00

allows per match

Selfoss
1.34
Fjardabyggd
2.19

finishing

Selfoss+0.00on par
Fjardabyggd+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selfoss ↓

Fjardabyggd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Selfoss or draw
82%
Selfoss or Fjardabyggd
81%
Draw or Fjardabyggd
37%

Winning margin

Selfoss wins by 2+
40%
Fjardabyggd wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Selfoss 1+ goals
90%
Selfoss 2+ goals
67%
Selfoss 3+ goals
40%
Fjardabyggd 1+ goals
69%
Fjardabyggd 2+ goals
33%
Fjardabyggd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Selfoss (draw refunded)
78%
Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selfoss at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Fjardabyggd away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selfoss attack 2.45 + Fjardabyggd defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.32

Fjardabyggd attack 1.00 + Selfoss defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Selfoss scores more
63%
level
19%
Fjardabyggd scores more
18%

Selfoss at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Selfoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Selfoss vs Fjardabyggd

Selfoss beat Fjardabyggd 3-0 in 2. Deild on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn (Selfoss, Árborg).