Selena Constanţa W 0–1 Universitatea Galaţi W

Selena Constanţa W

FT

0 – 1

Universitatea Galaţi W

9/6/2020

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 1Stadionul SNC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Selena Constanţa W60%

×Draw18%

Universitatea Galaţi W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Selena Constanţa WExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Galaţi W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

1.69

Selena Constanţa W

2.81

Universitatea Galaţi W

1.69

Selena Constanţa W creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 31 away

0.82

creates per match

0.74

2.64

allows per match

4.81

creates per match

Selena Constanţa W

0.82

Universitatea Galaţi W

0.74

allows per match

Selena Constanţa W

2.64

Universitatea Galaţi W

4.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Selena Constanţa W+0.00on par

Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selena Constanţa W ↓

Universitatea Galaţi W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Selena Constanţa W or draw

78%

Selena Constanţa W or Universitatea Galaţi W

82%

Draw or Universitatea Galaţi W

40%

Winning margin

Selena Constanţa W wins by 2+

40%

Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Selena Constanţa W 1+ goals

94%

Selena Constanţa W 2+ goals

76%

Selena Constanţa W 3+ goals

52%

Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals

82%

Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals

50%

Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Selena Constanţa W (draw refunded)

73%

Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selena Constanţa W at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Universitatea Galaţi W away — creates 0.74, concedes 4.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selena Constanţa W attack 0.82 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 4.81 → ÷2 → 2.81

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 0.74 + Selena Constanţa W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Selena Constanţa W scores more

60%

level

18%

Universitatea Galaţi W scores more

22%

Selena Constanţa W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Selena Constanţa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff