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Selena Constanţa W vs Universitatea Alexandria W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Selena Constanţa W
Selena Constanţa W
FT
1 – 5
Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
5/5/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 5Stadionul SNC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Selena Constanţa W27%
×Draw19%
Universitatea Alexandria W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selena Constanţa W
1.90
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.67

Universitatea Alexandria W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 45 away

creates per match

Selena Constanţa W
0.82
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.69

allows per match

Selena Constanţa W
2.64
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.98

finishing

Selena Constanţa W+0.00on par
Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selena Constanţa W ↓

Universitatea Alexandria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Selena Constanţa W or draw
46%
Selena Constanţa W or Universitatea Alexandria W
81%
Draw or Universitatea Alexandria W
73%

Winning margin

Selena Constanţa W wins by 2+
14%
Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Selena Constanţa W 1+ goals
85%
Selena Constanţa W 2+ goals
56%
Selena Constanţa W 3+ goals
29%
Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
93%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
74%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Selena Constanţa W (draw refunded)
34%
Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selena Constanţa W at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Universitatea Alexandria W away — creates 2.69, concedes 2.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selena Constanţa W attack 0.82 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 1.90

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.69 + Selena Constanţa W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Selena Constanţa W scores more
27%
level
19%
Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
54%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Selena Constanţa W vs Universitatea Alexandria W

Universitatea Alexandria W beat Selena Constanţa W 5-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul SNC in Constanţa.