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Selena Constanţa W vs Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Selena Constanţa W
Selena Constanţa W
FT
1 – 5
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
10/18/2020Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 7Stadionul SNC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Selena Constanţa W13%
×Draw16%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selena Constanţa W
1.11
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
2.73

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 146% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Selena Constanţa W
0.82
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
2.82

allows per match

Selena Constanţa W
2.64
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
1.41

finishing

Selena Constanţa W+0.00on par
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selena Constanţa W ↓

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Selena Constanţa W or draw
29%
Selena Constanţa W or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
84%
Draw or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W
87%

Winning margin

Selena Constanţa W wins by 2+
5%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Selena Constanţa W 1+ goals
67%
Selena Constanţa W 2+ goals
30%
Selena Constanţa W 3+ goals
10%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals
93%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals
75%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Selena Constanţa W (draw refunded)
16%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selena Constanţa W at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W away — creates 2.82, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selena Constanţa W attack 0.82 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.11

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 2.82 + Selena Constanţa W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Selena Constanţa W scores more
13%
level
16%
Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more
71%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Selena Constanţa W vs Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W beat Selena Constanţa W 5-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul SNC in Constanţa.