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Selena Constanţa W vs Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Selena Constanţa W
Selena Constanţa W
FT
1 – 7
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
9/26/2020Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 3Stadionul SNC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Selena Constanţa W13%
×Draw18%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selena Constanţa W
0.96
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.41

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W creates 151% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Selena Constanţa W
0.82
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.18

allows per match

Selena Constanţa W
2.64
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
1.09

finishing

Selena Constanţa W+0.00on par
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selena Constanţa W ↓

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Selena Constanţa W or draw
31%
Selena Constanţa W or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
82%
Draw or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
87%

Winning margin

Selena Constanţa W wins by 2+
4%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Selena Constanţa W 1+ goals
62%
Selena Constanţa W 2+ goals
25%
Selena Constanţa W 3+ goals
7%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 1+ goals
91%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2+ goals
69%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Selena Constanţa W (draw refunded)
16%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selena Constanţa W at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selena Constanţa W attack 0.82 + Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W attack 2.18 + Selena Constanţa W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Selena Constanţa W scores more
13%
level
18%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W scores more
69%

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Selena Constanţa W 1–7 Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W beat Selena Constanţa W 7-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul SNC in Constanţa.