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Selaya vs Ribamontán al Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Selaya
Selaya
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
2/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Estadio El Castañal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Selaya48%
×Draw26%
Ribamontán al Mar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selaya
1.52
Ribamontán al Mar
1.04

Selaya creates 46% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 28 away

creates per match

Selaya
1.03
Ribamontán al Mar
0.96

allows per match

Selaya
1.12
Ribamontán al Mar
2.00

finishing

Selaya+0.00on par
Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selaya ↓

Ribamontán al Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Selaya or draw
74%
Selaya or Ribamontán al Mar
74%
Draw or Ribamontán al Mar
52%

Winning margin

Selaya wins by 2+
24%
Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Selaya 1+ goals
78%
Selaya 2+ goals
45%
Selaya 3+ goals
20%
Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
65%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
28%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Selaya (draw refunded)
65%
Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selaya at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Ribamontán al Mar away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selaya attack 1.03 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.96 + Selaya defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Selaya scores more
48%
level
26%
Ribamontán al Mar scores more
26%

Selaya at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Selaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Selaya 1 – 0 Ribamontán al Mar

Selaya beat Ribamontán al Mar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Castañal in Selaya.