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Selaya vs Bezana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Selaya
Selaya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bezana
Bezana
12/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Estadio El Castañal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Selaya36%
×Draw28%
Bezana36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selaya
1.18
Bezana
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 81 away

creates per match

Selaya
1.03
Bezana
1.23

allows per match

Selaya
1.12
Bezana
1.33

finishing

Selaya+0.00on par
Bezana+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selaya ↓

Bezana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Selaya or draw
64%
Selaya or Bezana
72%
Draw or Bezana
64%

Winning margin

Selaya wins by 2+
15%
Bezana wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Selaya 1+ goals
69%
Selaya 2+ goals
33%
Selaya 3+ goals
12%
Bezana 1+ goals
69%
Bezana 2+ goals
33%
Bezana 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Selaya (draw refunded)
50%
Bezana (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selaya at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Bezana away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selaya attack 1.03 + Bezana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bezana attack 1.23 + Selaya defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Selaya scores more
36%
level
28%
Bezana scores more
36%

Selaya at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Selaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Selaya 0 – 1 Bezana

Bezana beat Selaya 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Castañal in Selaya.