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Selaya vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Selaya
Selaya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
2/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Estadio El Castañal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Selaya34%
×Draw26%
Atlético Albericia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selaya
1.23
Atlético Albericia
1.35

Atlético Albericia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 108 away

creates per match

Selaya
1.03
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Selaya
1.12
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Selaya+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selaya ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Selaya or draw
60%
Selaya or Atlético Albericia
74%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
66%

Winning margin

Selaya wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Selaya 1+ goals
71%
Selaya 2+ goals
35%
Selaya 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
39%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Selaya (draw refunded)
46%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selaya at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selaya attack 1.03 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Selaya defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Selaya scores more
34%
level
26%
Atlético Albericia scores more
40%

Atlético Albericia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Selaya 1–1 Atlético Albericia

Selaya and Atlético Albericia drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Castañal in Selaya.