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Selangor vs Persib Bandung — AFC Cup 2018

Selangor
Selangor
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Persib Bandung
Persib Bandung
11/6/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4MBPJ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Selangor35%
×Draw23%
Persib Bandung42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selangor
1.60
Persib Bandung
1.77

Persib Bandung creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Selangor
1.33
Persib Bandung
1.71

allows per match

Selangor
1.83
Persib Bandung
1.86

finishing

Selangor+0.00on par
Persib Bandung+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selangor ↓

Persib Bandung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Selangor or draw
58%
Selangor or Persib Bandung
77%
Draw or Persib Bandung
65%

Winning margin

Selangor wins by 2+
17%
Persib Bandung wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Selangor 1+ goals
80%
Selangor 2+ goals
47%
Selangor 3+ goals
22%
Persib Bandung 1+ goals
83%
Persib Bandung 2+ goals
53%
Persib Bandung 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Selangor (draw refunded)
45%
Persib Bandung (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selangor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Persib Bandung away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selangor attack 1.33 + Persib Bandung defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Persib Bandung attack 1.71 + Selangor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Selangor scores more
35%
level
23%
Persib Bandung scores more
42%

Persib Bandung at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Persib Bandung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Selangor 2–3 Persib Bandung

Persib Bandung beat Selangor 3-2 in AFC Cup on November 6, 2025.

The match was played at MBPJ Stadium in Petaling Jaya.