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Selangor vs Pahang — Malaysia Cup 2019

Selangor
Selangor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Pahang
Pahangadvanced
12/1/2024Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Round of 16MBPJ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Selangor42%
×Draw23%
Pahang35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selangor
1.68
Pahang
1.51

Selangor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

creates per match

Selangor
1.79
Pahang
1.81

allows per match

Selangor
1.21
Pahang
1.56

finishing

Selangor+0.00on par
Pahang+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selangor ↓

Pahang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Selangor or draw
65%
Selangor or Pahang
77%
Draw or Pahang
58%

Winning margin

Selangor wins by 2+
22%
Pahang wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Selangor 1+ goals
81%
Selangor 2+ goals
50%
Selangor 3+ goals
24%
Pahang 1+ goals
78%
Pahang 2+ goals
44%
Pahang 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Selangor (draw refunded)
55%
Pahang (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selangor at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Pahang away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selangor attack 1.79 + Pahang defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Pahang attack 1.81 + Selangor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Selangor scores more
42%
level
23%
Pahang scores more
35%

Selangor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Selangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Selangor vs Pahang

Pahang beat Selangor 2-1 in Malaysia Cup on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at MBPJ Stadium in Petaling Jaya.