Selangor 1–2 Muangthong United: Result & Stats

Selangor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Muangthong United

11/28/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5MBPJ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Selangor34%

×Draw20%

Muangthong United47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SelangorExpected goals in this matchMuangthong United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

2.42

Selangor

2.04

Muangthong United

2.42

Muangthong United creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

3.00

1.83

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Selangor

1.33

Muangthong United

3.00

allows per match

Selangor

1.83

Muangthong United

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Selangor+0.00on par

Muangthong United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selangor ↓

Muangthong United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Selangor or draw

53%

Selangor or Muangthong United

80%

Draw or Muangthong United

66%

Winning margin

Selangor wins by 2+

18%

Muangthong United wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Selangor 1+ goals

87%

Selangor 2+ goals

60%

Selangor 3+ goals

33%

Muangthong United 1+ goals

91%

Muangthong United 2+ goals

69%

Muangthong United 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Selangor (draw refunded)

42%

Muangthong United (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selangor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Muangthong United away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selangor attack 1.33 + Muangthong United defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Muangthong United attack 3.00 + Selangor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Selangor scores more

34%

level

20%

Muangthong United scores more

47%

Muangthong United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Muangthong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff