Selangor 2–1 Melaka United: Result & Stats

Selangor

FT

2 – 1

Melaka United

11/8/2020

Malaysia Cup · Round of 16Stadium Hang Jebat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Selangor42%

×Draw23%

Melaka United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SelangorExpected goals in this matchMelaka United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.50

Selangor

1.68

Melaka United

1.50

Selangor creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.79

creates per match

1.78

1.21

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Selangor

1.79

Melaka United

1.78

allows per match

Selangor

1.21

Melaka United

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Selangor+0.00on par

Melaka United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selangor ↓

Melaka United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Selangor or draw

66%

Selangor or Melaka United

77%

Draw or Melaka United

58%

Winning margin

Selangor wins by 2+

22%

Melaka United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Selangor 1+ goals

81%

Selangor 2+ goals

50%

Selangor 3+ goals

24%

Melaka United 1+ goals

78%

Melaka United 2+ goals

44%

Melaka United 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Selangor (draw refunded)

55%

Melaka United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selangor at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Melaka United away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selangor attack 1.79 + Melaka United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Melaka United attack 1.78 + Selangor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Selangor scores more

42%

level

23%

Melaka United scores more

34%

Selangor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Selangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff