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Selangor vs Kelantan United — Malaysia Cup 2019

Selangor
Selangoradvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kelantan United
Kelantan United
1/23/2026Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Round of 16MBPJ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Selangor69%
×Draw18%
Kelantan United13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selangor
2.33
Kelantan United
0.89

Selangor creates 162% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

creates per match

Selangor
1.79
Kelantan United
0.57

allows per match

Selangor
1.21
Kelantan United
2.86

finishing

Selangor+0.00on par
Kelantan United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selangor ↓

Kelantan United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Selangor or draw
87%
Selangor or Kelantan United
82%
Draw or Kelantan United
31%

Winning margin

Selangor wins by 2+
46%
Kelantan United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Selangor 1+ goals
90%
Selangor 2+ goals
67%
Selangor 3+ goals
41%
Kelantan United 1+ goals
59%
Kelantan United 2+ goals
22%
Kelantan United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Selangor (draw refunded)
84%
Kelantan United (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selangor at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Kelantan United away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selangor attack 1.79 + Kelantan United defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.33

Kelantan United attack 0.57 + Selangor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Selangor scores more
69%
level
18%
Kelantan United scores more
13%

Selangor at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Selangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Selangor 3–0 Kelantan United

Selangor beat Kelantan United 3-0 in Malaysia Cup on January 23, 2026.

The match was played at MBPJ Stadium in Petaling Jaya.