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Selangor vs Jeonbuk Motors — AFC Cup 2018

Selangor
Selangor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
10/23/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3MBPJ Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Selangor21%
×Draw20%
Jeonbuk Motors58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selangor
1.27
Jeonbuk Motors
2.21

Jeonbuk Motors creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Selangor
1.33
Jeonbuk Motors
2.60

allows per match

Selangor
1.83
Jeonbuk Motors
1.20

finishing

Selangor+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selangor ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Selangor or draw
42%
Selangor or Jeonbuk Motors
80%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
79%

Winning margin

Selangor wins by 2+
9%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Selangor 1+ goals
72%
Selangor 2+ goals
36%
Selangor 3+ goals
14%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
89%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
65%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Selangor (draw refunded)
27%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selangor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selangor attack 1.33 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.60 + Selangor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Selangor scores more
21%
level
20%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
58%

Jeonbuk Motors at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Selangor vs Jeonbuk Motors

Selangor beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-1 in AFC Cup on October 23, 2024.

The match was played at MBPJ Stadium in Petaling Jaya.