Selangor United 2–2 Kuala Lumpur FA: Result & Stats

Selangor United

2 – 2

Kuala Lumpur FA

11/3/2021

Malaysia Cup · Group Stage - 4Stadium Mini UITM

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Selangor United34%

×Draw24%

Kuala Lumpur FA42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Selangor UnitedExpected goals in this matchKuala Lumpur FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.61

Selangor United

1.42

Kuala Lumpur FA

1.61

Kuala Lumpur FA creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

1.43

1.80

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Selangor United

1.20

Kuala Lumpur FA

1.43

allows per match

Selangor United

1.80

Kuala Lumpur FA

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Selangor United+0.00on par

Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selangor United ↓

Kuala Lumpur FA →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Selangor United or draw

58%

Selangor United or Kuala Lumpur FA

76%

Draw or Kuala Lumpur FA

66%

Winning margin

Selangor United wins by 2+

15%

Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Selangor United 1+ goals

76%

Selangor United 2+ goals

41%

Selangor United 3+ goals

17%

Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals

80%

Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals

48%

Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Selangor United (draw refunded)

45%

Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Selangor United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Kuala Lumpur FA away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Selangor United attack 1.20 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 1.43 + Selangor United defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Selangor United scores more

34%

level

24%

Kuala Lumpur FA scores more

42%

Kuala Lumpur FA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kuala Lumpur FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff