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Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Ironi Tiberias — Liga Leumit 2019

Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
1/5/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 16Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona35%
×Draw26%
Ironi Tiberias39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.26
Ironi Tiberias
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.39
Ironi Tiberias
1.64

allows per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.05
Ironi Tiberias
1.14

finishing

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sektzia Nes Tziona ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sektzia Nes Tziona or draw
61%
Sektzia Nes Tziona or Ironi Tiberias
74%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
65%

Winning margin

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
15%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
72%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
36%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
13%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
74%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
39%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
47%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sektzia Nes Tziona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.39 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
35%
level
26%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
39%

Ironi Tiberias at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Sektzia Nes Tziona 2–3 Ironi Tiberias

Ironi Tiberias beat Sektzia Nes Tziona 3-2 in Liga Leumit on January 5, 2024.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.